Methodology
StandupSolver treats standup and bounty side games as zero-sum equity overlays. This page explains the assumptions and validation approach at a high level, while keeping the full implementation inside the app.
In a traditional game, players without a squid are the only players who can become the final loser. If there are K players without a squid, symmetry gives each of those players a 1/K chance of losing. Players who already have a squid have zero loser probability.
The solver converts that loser risk into penalty equity while preserving the zero-sum nature of the side game: one player's expected gain is balanced by another player's expected loss.
The effective ante is the side-game EV swing between winning and not winning the current hand. That makes the number useful for preflop study because it converts side-game pressure into an ante-like adjustment.
The heads-up matrix uses the same idea against each specific opponent: hero's EV if hero wins the pot minus hero's EV if that opponent wins the pot.
Progressive mode accounts for multi-squid distributions, caps, first-hand bonuses, and configurable value schedules. The solver evaluates the current state against the possible future distributions and returns each player's penalty equity and ante pressure.
This is one of the main reasons to use the desktop app instead of a spreadsheet: the useful answer is the current decision pressure, not just the final payout table.
Bounty mode models the current streak holder separately from the rest of the table, then converts the current streak state into effective ante and bounty equity values.
The desktop app also supports custom streak-holder win probabilities, which lets users model a player having an above-average chance to win the next hand.
The calculation library has automated tests for symmetry, zero-sum value conservation, expected bounty relationships, final progressive states, capped progressive states, and known traditional examples.
Run traditional standup examples in the browser before using the full desktop solver.